Who should replace Jović at Fiorentina? (Part 2)
Jović didn't impact Fiorentina's scoring as people hoped at the start of the season. If Fiorentina doesn't want t bring in immediate competition for the starting spot, but a project, who to go for?
The methodology for this post has been outlined in the first post of the newsletter which is “Who should succeed Amrabat at Fiorentina?”. While the first part explained why and what I’ve been searching for in these two parts newsletter.
The wunderkind profile
This second part will focus on finding a wunderkind to develop into a new Vlahović, in the first part we wanted to have someone ready to compete for the starting position, here we want a young player, and don’t want limits on team play style or but we want the Vlahović specific role in the striker position, which is Complete Forward - the same as in part 1.
So I filtered my Complete Forward database only for players born after 2001. In this way, I have very young players under my eyes and the median we’ll use for benchmarking will not be created based on more experienced players or monsters like Haaland and Mbappé.
We want to find good young strikers.
The list
Searching the best inside the list
The metrics
Like in the first part I’ve used seven metrics to assess which are the best young strikers in this list, every on-ball metric is adjusted, and in this way, I’ve tried to have a non-biased view of data.
I’ve used - as in the first part:
Box entries (Carries, Passes, and Crosses into the box)
Key passes
Take Ons attempted
Shots attempted
xT (A model that evaluates every pass with an increased probability of scoring)
npxG per 90
Space Threat (Progressive passes received plus Offside)
For each of them, I’ve looked at the players with a score above the median of the list, then I’ve watched for how many of these metrics a player appeared above the median.
Special mentions
The special mentions today are a lot, some were already discussed in the first part so I’ll rapidly mention them, with their scores in this different shortlist:
Folarin Balogun, six times above median with four top 10 metrics, difficult to acquire if Arsenal really trust his development.
Joe Gelhardt, six times above median with four top 10 metrics. Difficult to acquire since it seems Leeds want control over his future.
Cameron Archer, six times above median with two top 10 metrics, coming from Aston Villa’s youth ranks I don’t think they want to sell before he reaches at least in part his potential.
Brian Brobbey, five times above median with all five in the top 10, I think he’s purchasable if Fiorentina can spend and Ajax ends up out of UCL.
The new special mentions:
Santiago Giménez, only four times above median and with only one top 10 he’s not one of my preferred choices. Furthermore he’s currently on top of Eredivisie with Feyenoord, if they end up winning they’ll go to UCL, so I would think they will try to keep their best talents and he would not go in a non-UCL team.
Momo Ali-Cho, only four times above median with no top 10 is already enough for me, but Real Sociedad is notoriously a club that develops players and sell big, they moved before everyone else on him and I don’t think they’d sell unless they think he cannot grow.
Jorge Ruvalcaba, only four times above median but all of four metrics are top 10, with box entries at first place and takeons at third. He’s mostly a winger, but from limited footage he felt a bit chaotic and physically fragile, I’d skip on him for now.
Liam Delap, famous between FM players he’s from Manchester City youth rank. Only four times above median and one top 10 in his very limited footage he seems a beast between kids in his age category, but probably needs to confirm himself in the Championship before doing another step, even though it would mean potentially missing out on him.
Vitor Roque, five times above median with four top 10 he’s not purchasable. After doing well in the Sudamericano sub-20 he’s followed by big clubs, with reports of Barcelona being strong on him, request from Atletico Paranaense seems to be above 30 millions.
The shortlist
This time I have five different names, all with grade of availability that will be talked about. I don’t want to divide them in categories since they are not many and I think there’s a clear one to go after, while the others are options.
Kwadwo Opoku. Five times above median and with three top 10 metrics he’s more of an Inside Forward type of player, he operates wide but comes inside and attack very well the goal. He’s very fast but in the limited footage I’ve seen he’s chaotic and seem to lack in decision making, and his shots in the footage are from deep. I’m not fully convinced, but his speed and ability to dribble make him a good prospect that should be considered. (Even though I’ve come to an opposite result for Ruvalcaba)
Arnaud Kalimuendo. Above median in five metrics and top 10 only one times, with a third score in space threat. In the list he appears for both last two seasons, and he’s probably the most experienced of the five I’m going through. He didn’t really impressed me - maybe there are too many clips of penalties -, but his quality are clear and he’s able to play multiple positions, while doing it in the fifth world league for ranking.
Marcos Leonardo. Above median five times with three top 10, where he’s fifth both for xT and shots, while eighth for key passes. A well known wonderkid for FM players he’s probably costly but not to an impossible level since it doesn’t seem - to me - the hype is there for him. An Agüero frame an hybrid play style could be a safe bet and at limited expense.
Yorbe Vertessen. Really impressed me in the very limited footage for his speed, ability of kicking the ball and link up with others. I’ve lost track of him now he’s in Belgium but in Eredivisie he got above median five times with four top 10 metrics, tenth for npxG per 90, fourth for xT, third for box entries and sixth for key passes. Being at Unione Saint-Gilloise I would think he’s not purchasable, if you don’t know the team now second in Jupiler League he’s owned by the same guy that owns Brighton. Vertessen could be - like Mitoma - on a stepping stone. However I’d like to keep him in mind.
Elye Wahi. He’s the one. There are rumours about being followed by PSG and Arsenal, but he’s still in Montpellier which is in the second part of the table in France, so I’d think he’s one to get and fast. He played almost 2000 minutes this season in Ligue 1 and got above median five times with unfortunately only one top 10. What really impressed me in footage is his incredible strength in the legs. Watch with attention how fast he is and how fast he is in changing direction and rhythm, that’s not all, look closely the power he shot with. He kicks the ball with such strength that GK often cannot cope with, that’s not something you can train, but others thing are that he’ll surely need. Waiting could be a huge mistake here and I’d try to take him very rapidly.
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Let me know if there’s a particular team and position you want next, my plan is to bring Chelsea and ManU striker positions and Juventus defense rebuild series as next four to five posts. Thanks again for reading.